MEXICO CITY.— Mexico will remain below average economic growth of Latin America and the Caribbean during 2026in accordance with the forecasts of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC). While the region as a whole would achieve an expansion of 2.3%, the Mexican economy would grow 1.3%, reflecting persistent slowdown and high exposure to external factors.
As seen in the Preliminary Balance of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean 2025the expected growth for Mexico in 2026 will be lower than the 1.4% recorded in 2024, although higher than the 0.4% estimated for the end of 2025. With this, the country would continue to show a moderate performance compared to its regional peers, in an environment marked by the loss of dynamism of domestic consumption and the impact of tariffs on exports.
The ECLAC predicts that 2025 close with a regional growth of 2.4%which would imply that Latin America accumulate four consecutive years of low growth. Within that context, Mexico is one of the economies with limited expansionbelow the regional average and far from the countries with the greatest dynamism.
By 2026, the highest economic growth is projected in Antigua and Barbudawith 5%, followed by Costa Rica and Honduras, both with 3.9%. In contrast, Haiti would register a contraction of –1.2%, Cuba would grow 0.1% and Bolivia 0.5%.
difficult scenario
The organization said that the economic scenario of 2026 will be conditioned by external risks, including the evolution of global GDP growth, international trade and monetary policy USA. “There is uncertainty about the direction of that country’s economic and trade policy, although it is clear that the tariffs will have a greater impact at the beginning of 2026,” ECLAC warned.
Added to these factors is the volatility of external financing flows, foreign direct investment and remittances, as well as the weak growth and low productivity in Europe, industrial overcapacity and deflation in China, in addition to persistent geopolitical tensions.