WASHINGTON / LONDON (IT BOLTWISE) – The release of US jobs reports for October and November has been delayed due to a government shutdown. Important data such as the unemployment rate for October is missing, which leads to uncertainty when assessing the economic situation.
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The release of the US labor market reports for October and November is influenced by the longest government shutdown in US history. This meant that important data such as the unemployment rate for October could not be collected. The lack of data makes it difficult for the Federal Reserve as well as investors and companies to accurately assess the economic situation.
The shutdown not only prevented the collection of labor market data, but also the publication of the October Consumer Price Index (CPI). The impact of these delays is far-reaching, as the CPI is a key indicator of inflation developments. Without full data for October, it remains unclear how prices have developed this month, making it difficult to analyze inflation dynamics.
The labor market reports are based on two surveys, usually conducted the week of the 12th of each month. While the collection of employer data, which is crucial for calculating employment figures, was able to continue, the household survey, which is necessary for the unemployment rate, was canceled. This leads to a gap in the data series for the first time since the surveys began in 1948.
Economists expect the shutdown’s impact on data quality to be limited because employer data collection continued despite the disruption. However, uncertainty remains, especially since the unemployment rate for October could not be determined. The BLS has announced that November data may have slightly higher variances due to changes in statistical weighting.
The release of the November CPI is also highly anticipated as it is expected to provide insight into price trends post-shutdown. However, experts warn of possible biases as data collection only resumed in the second half of the month. This could lead to an underestimation of price developments, as prices typically fall around mid-November with the start of the Christmas season.
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