A new model of military rule.. Foreign Affairs: Pakistan’s quiet coup | policy

Under a civilian government led by Shehbaz Sharif, Pakistani Army Commander Field Marshal Asim Munir emerged as the driving force behind the country’s basic political, economic and diplomatic decisions, in a transformation described as a “quiet coup” that reshapes the country’s model of power.

With this conclusion, the American magazine Foreign Affairs opened an article, written by its correspondent in Islamabad, Mehreen Zahra Malik, in which she confirmed that the political scene in Pakistan is witnessing a radical transformation, represented by the rise of the army to the center of government in an unprecedented manner since the end of direct military rule in 2008, without a coup or suspension of the constitution this time.

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The writer saw US President Donald Trump’s mention of the names of Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir side by side, while announcing a peace plan in Gaza, as a clear indication of the army’s position in the pyramid of power, at a time when the army is now ruling openly, after it had for many years been exercising its influence behind the scenes.

The features of this transformation began, as the author says, after the overthrow of former Prime Minister Imran Khan in 2022, in a move in which the army is widely believed to have played a major role. One of Sharif’s government ministers said in 2023 in an interview with the author, “We know that we cannot get rid of Imran Khan without the army.”

Indeed, the role of the army was confirmed with the 2024 elections, in which Khan’s party won a numerical majority, but he was unable to form the government due to legal and political restrictions, which established a new situation in which the current civilian government depends almost entirely on the support of the army, according to the author.

The continued imprisonment of Imran Khan, the most popular figure in the country, according to the correspondent, represents a major challenge for the army, because a judicial or political settlement of his case may threaten the new regime, and his continued exclusion leads to weakening the legitimacy of this model in the eyes of the street.

Joint transformations

Thus – the author says – the army, with its control over the security, intelligence, and judicial institutions, became a major player in determining the form and directions of governments, and the relationship between the military and civilian institutions took a clearer turn. especially During the short war with India in May 2025, the United States worked directly with Asim Munir to end the fighting, ignoring the Prime Minister and his government.

This led to confirmation of the fact that the final decision on issues of war and peace rests with the army, which contributed to raising Munir’s status internally and externally, to the point that Trump received him after the war in the White House twice within months, in meetings that were unprecedented in terms of their content and symbolism, and included economic, commercial, technical, and energy-related files, all of which were traditionally the jurisdiction of civilian ministries.

The Investment Facilitation Council, a joint civilian-military body, became the central tool for managing foreign investments, with the army enjoying the greatest weight within it – according to the author – and large deals were concluded through it, most notably the agreement signed by the army’s Border Works Organization to export rare metals worth half a billion dollars.

In this context, a Foreign Affairs correspondent in Pakistan reported that Parliament approved a constitutional amendment elevating Asim Munir to become commander of all branches of the armed forces, granting him legal immunity for life and a renewable term of 5 years, which effectively means that he can remain in office for ten years.

Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Asif frankly told the author in an interview earlier this year that the political system has now become a hybrid in which the civilian government and the army share “ownership of the power structure.”

The minister added, “I believe that the hybrid arrangement works miracles,” referring to Pakistan obtaining new loans from the International Monetary Fund, reopening diplomatic channels with the United States, and opening high-level lines of communication with Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, and China, to obtain investments.

An economy under military administration

Supporters of the new regime justify the stationing of the army because it restored discipline and speed to the Pakistani state, which had long suffered from slow procedures and political volatility, but civilian institutions began to play formal roles at a time when the keys to decision-making were transferred to the hands of the military leadership, according to the author.

Here, the writer mentioned that Pakistan has known military dictatorships before, noting that the current situation is not a return to them, as there is no coup, no suspension of the constitution, and no abolition of Parliament. Rather, the army has functionally taken over the political system without formally replacing it, which erases institutional boundaries in ways that may reshape political life for years.

The author cautioned that making this model public would normalize the dominance of the army, and thus political parties would become mere administrative bodies, Parliament would become a display platform, and the Prime Minister would be the manager of decisions made elsewhere. This is the cost of the deal that was concluded to neutralize Imran Khan, as the author comments.

Thus, for the first time in years, the army becomes exposed to popular accountability, as it can no longer hold civilian governments responsible if economic policies fail, investments falter, or security deteriorates.

This model carries great risks – according to the author – because the concentration of power in the hands of the military institution may weaken ministries, marginalize civilian expertise, and undermine democratic oversight mechanisms, making the system fragile when facing crises.

According to the author, this advanced military role regionally may lead to strained relations with India and greater involvement in the strategic calculations of the Gulf states, which increases the risk of sliding into regional conflicts.

The author concluded that the army abandoned the strategy of ruling from the shadows, and today it has become a visible part of the political scene, taking the lead in diplomacy, economics, and decision-making without a coup, but rather through a “strategic merger” that made civilian institutions a cover for a regime led by the military establishment in public.

Mehreen Zahra Malik concluded that supporters of this model celebrate its effectiveness and strength, but its opponents do They warn At the same time It puts the country on a fragile path that requires time to determine its resilience in the face of future challenges.